Today - False favourites shortlist

False Favourite Finder

How it works

We scanned over 10,000 past race results to identify patterns commonly found in beaten favourites.

Today's favourites are compared against those warning signs, with potentially vulnerable runners flagged below. Prices are then tracked through the day to show whether the market supports or opposes the case.

Use this as a research tool to help spot possible lay candidates or races where extra caution may be needed.

Updated daily at 9am. Feedback: support@trackstrats.com

Racecards scanned14
Favourites flagged3
Generated04-10-2026 09:30
Odds updated20:30

2:55 - Kelso - Hurdle - Class 4

Tuppence

Justin & Susan Greig Novices' Hurdle Race (Go North Night Nurse Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Opposition ConfidenceMediumA/E 0.67 - 76 samples
Why flagged Similar favourites won 26.3% versus 39.2% expected from the market.
View prices, result & evidence
Exchange moveDrifted +13.4%Exchange 1.49 to 1.69. Supports the oppose case.
ResultWonSP 1.62
Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore - 14d 3/28 (11.0%) Mr Lucas Murphy(7)
Headgear on 31.8% actual vs 35.8% expectedAge 6-8 33.6% actual vs 37.3% expectedTrainer favourite underperforms 26.3% actual vs 39.2% expected (76 samples, A/E 0.67)2m hurdle 42.5% actual vs 46.9% expected
  • Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore favourite trainer profile: 26.3% actual vs 39.2% expected (76 historical favourites, A/E 0.67)
Racecard context

No racecard comment supplied.

4:56 - Uttoxeter - Chase - Class 5

Jo Arengeot Bey Aa

Quinnbet Handicap Steeple Chase

Opposition ConfidenceMediumA/E 0.88 - 139 samples
Why flagged Similar favourites won 26.6% versus 30.3% expected from the market.
View prices, result & evidence
Exchange moveDrifted +22.5%Exchange 2.98 to 3.65. Supports the oppose case.
ResultLostSP 3.25
Donald McCain - 14d 1/12 (8.0%) Gavin Sheehan
Headgear on 31.8% actual vs 35.8% expectedHandicap 30.3% actual vs 33.9% expectedAge 6-8 33.6% actual vs 37.3% expected
  • handicap favourite, price 3.0-3.99, 6-8 runners, age 6-8, headgear yes, other track: 26.6% actual vs 30.3% expected (139 historical favourites, A/E 0.88)
Racecard context

Placed in his last three outings, with a third last time out, another third two starts back and a second three starts back, and he is fit after 24 days off. Having run over today's trip and going helps, but 151 lb is a big weight to carry off 81, and our rating of 80 ranks him only fifth of seven.

1:26 - Uttoxeter - Hurdle - Class 4

Gentle Ocean

Chloe Mediumship Novices' Hurdle Race (gbb Race)

Opposition ConfidenceMediumA/E 0.84 - 88 samples
Why flagged Similar favourites won 36.4% versus 43.3% expected from the market.
View prices, result & evidence
Exchange moveShortened -24.8%Exchange 2.30 to 1.73. Market support is a caution.
ResultWonSP 1.62
Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies - 14d 6/11 (55.0%) Sam Twiston-Davies
Price 2.0-2.99 37.2% actual vs 41.2% expectedTrainer favourite underperforms 36.4% actual vs 43.3% expected (88 samples, A/E 0.84)
  • Nigel & Willy Twiston-Davies favourite trainer profile: 36.4% actual vs 43.3% expected (88 historical favourites, A/E 0.84)
Racecard context

No racecard comment supplied.

Performance

False favourites identified156
False favourites strike rate54.4%287 settled from 299 flagged
Lay P&L+20.24 pts1pt lay at BSP
False favourites identified6
False favourites strike rate40.0%15 settled from 16 flagged
Lay P&L-1.95 pts1pt lay at BSP
False favourites identified57
False favourites strike rate54.8%104 settled from 109 flagged
Lay P&L+9.48 pts1pt lay at BSP
False favourites identified62
False favourites strike rate53.0%117 settled from 122 flagged
Lay P&L+5.62 pts1pt lay at BSP
False favourites identified31
False favourites strike rate60.8%51 settled from 52 flagged
Lay P&L+7.09 pts1pt lay at BSP
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