3:45 - Pontefract - Flat - Class 5
Garden Oasis
Riu Hotels And Resorts Ladies Day Veterans' Handicap Stakes
Opposition ConfidenceMediumA/E 0.84 - 147 samples
Why flagged
Similar favourites won 27.2% versus 32.6% expected from the market.
Exchange moveShortened -3.7%Exchange 2.18 to 2.10. Market support is a caution.
ResultLostSP 2.10
Morning exchange2.18Betfair Exchange
Current exchange2.10SmarketsSBK
Field6
Draw3
Age/Sex11/G
Headgearp
GoingGood To Firm
Distance7f-1m1m
Tracksharpstiff
Trainer 14dquiet3/84 (4.0%)
Tim Easterby - 14d 3/84 (4.0%)
David Allan
Headgear on 31.8% actual vs 35.8% expectedHandicap 30.3% actual vs 33.9% expectedPrice 2.0-2.99 37.2% actual vs 41.2% expectedTrainer favourite underperforms 27.2% actual vs 32.6% expected (147 samples, A/E 0.84)Quiet trainer 3/84 in 14 days (4.0%)7f-1m Flat trip 33.8% actual vs 37.3% expected
- Tim Easterby favourite trainer profile: 27.2% actual vs 32.6% expected (147 historical favourites, A/E 0.84)
Racecard context
Garden Oasis arrives on the back of a runner-up finish last time out and has run over today's trip and going before, while his speed rating of 81 and a rating of 78 mark him out as a leading danger — the concern is a trainer currently striking at just 4% in recent weeks.
5:50 - Kempton (AW) - Flat - Class 3
Chymbulak
Unibet/British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB Race)
Opposition ConfidenceLowA/E 0.71 - 50 samples
Why flagged
Similar favourites won 30.0% versus 42.5% expected from the market.
Exchange moveDrifted +22.3%Exchange 2.78 to 3.40. Supports the oppose case.
ResultLostSP 4.00
Morning exchange2.78Betfair Exchange
Current exchange3.40Betfair Exchange
Field8
Draw7
Age/Sex2/C
Headgearnone
GoingStandard To Slow
Distance7f-1m7f
Trackgallopingflat
Trainer 14dhot12/29 (41.0%)
Roger Varian - 14d 12/29 (41.0%)
Ray Dawson
High-third draw 33.5% actual vs 38.5% expectedPrice 2.0-2.99 37.2% actual vs 41.2% expected7f-1m Flat trip 33.8% actual vs 37.3% expected
- novice favourite, price 2.0-2.99, 6-8 runners, age 2-3, headgear no, galloping track: 30.0% actual vs 42.5% expected (50 historical favourites, A/E 0.71)
Racecard context
No racecard comment supplied.
6:40 - Yarmouth - Flat - Class 4
Dowman
Strawberry Fields Stud Nursery Handicap Stakes
Opposition ConfidenceMediumA/E 0.84 - 125 samples
Why flagged
Similar favourites won 37.6% versus 44.8% expected from the market.
Exchange moveDrifted +13.6%Exchange 2.86 to 3.25. Supports the oppose case.
ResultLostSP 3.00
Morning exchange2.86Betfair Exchange
Current exchange3.25Betfair Exchange
Field5
Draw3
Age/Sex2/G
Headgeart
GoingGood To Firm
Distancesprint 5f-6f5f
Trackstraightflat
Trainer 14dhot7/28 (25.0%)
George Boughey - 14d 7/28 (25.0%)
Billy Loughnane
Headgear on 31.8% actual vs 35.8% expectedHandicap 30.3% actual vs 33.9% expectedPrice 2.0-2.99 37.2% actual vs 41.2% expectedTrainer favourite underperforms 37.6% actual vs 44.8% expected (125 samples, A/E 0.84)Flat sprint 32.0% actual vs 35.8% expected
- George Boughey favourite trainer profile: 37.6% actual vs 44.8% expected (125 historical favourites, A/E 0.84)
Racecard context
No racecard comment supplied.
8:50 - Kempton (AW) - Flat - Class 5
Desert Belle
Unibet More Extra Place Races Handicap Stakes (London Stayers' Series Qualifier)
Opposition ConfidenceMediumA/E 0.70 - 76 samples
Why flagged
Similar favourites won 30.3% versus 43.1% expected from the market.
Exchange moveStableExchange 2.26 to 2.25.
ResultLostSP 2.25
Morning exchange2.26Betfair Exchange
Current exchange2.25SmarketsSBK
Field8
Draw4
Age/Sex3/F
Headgearp
GoingStandard To Slow
Distancestaying 1m5f-2m2m
Trackgallopingflat
Trainer 14dhot10/29 (34.0%)
Sir Mark Prescott Bt - 14d 10/29 (34.0%)
Luke Morris
Female favourite 33.9% actual vs 40.1% expectedHeadgear on 31.8% actual vs 35.8% expectedHandicap 30.3% actual vs 33.9% expectedPrice 2.0-2.99 37.2% actual vs 41.2% expectedTrainer favourite underperforms 30.3% actual vs 43.1% expected (76 samples, A/E 0.70)Flat staying trip 33.2% actual vs 38.6% expected
- Sir Mark Prescott Bt favourite trainer profile: 30.3% actual vs 43.1% expected (76 historical favourites, A/E 0.70)
Racecard context
Desert Belle has been placed in five of her last six starts, with a win five starts back, and has experience of today's going — a strong profile backed by a trainer firing at 32% recently. The worry is she carries 128 lb.
7:20 - Kempton (AW) - Flat - Class 3
Dialstone
Becky Burke Memorial Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Opposition ConfidenceMediumA/E 0.83 - 153 samples
Why flagged
Similar favourites won 37.3% versus 45.0% expected from the market.
Exchange moveDrifted +8.0%Exchange 1.62 to 1.75. Supports the oppose case.
ResultLostSP 1.83
Morning exchange1.62SmarketsSBK
Current exchange1.75Betfair Exchange
Field12
Draw3
Age/Sex3/G
Headgearnone
GoingStandard To Slow
Distancemiddle 1m1f-1m4f1m3f
Trackgallopingflat
Trainer 14dneutral5/48 (10.0%)
Ralph Beckett - 14d 5/48 (10.0%)
Rossa Ryan
Trainer favourite underperforms 37.3% actual vs 45.0% expected (153 samples, A/E 0.83)
- Ralph Beckett favourite trainer profile: 37.3% actual vs 45.0% expected (153 historical favourites, A/E 0.83)
Racecard context
No racecard comment supplied.